The Avian Flu Threat

Is your company ready for a possible influenza pandemic?

Not since the release of the classic Hitchcock film have birds been the cause for so much anxiety.

Avian influenza, more commonly known as “bird flu,” poses a serious potential threat to both human health and, subsequently, the global economy—and your business will feel the effects. A flu pandemic—or global epidemic—would impact you, your employees, your customers and your suppliers in ways you've probably never before contemplated.

According to the World Health Organization, while the vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not affect humans, on rare occasions bird viruses can infect other animals, including humans. Avian H5N1, the virus currently causing a high mortality rate in birds around the world, is viewed as a strain with significant potential to adapt and become contagious among humans. If it does, the impact likely would be devastating.

Although there is no way to predict whether the deadly bird flu virus will mutate and begin spreading via human-to-human contact, you can take steps to prepare yourself, your business and your employees for a possible influenza pandemic.

Why You Should Be Concerned
Influenza pandemics are not a new phenomenon. The most recent such outbreak occurred in 1968-69, killing over 700,000 people worldwide. The 1918-19 “Spanish Flu” outbreak was worse by far, killing an estimated 40 to 50 million people worldwide, including over 675,000 in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But what many people forget to take into account is the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on the economy and the business community. An H5N1 influenza pandemic could infect between 75 million and 90 million people in the United States—that is, 25 to 30 percent of the U.S. population. Think of that number as applied to your workforce, and consider the implications.

A report by the Congressional Budget Office predicts that, in the event of a severe pandemic, an average of 30 percent of the workers in every sector will become ill. An even greater percentage will be absent from work due to illness, fear of catching the virus at work, or because they need to care for family and friends—an average of three weeks of missed work per employee. Your business also is likely to be affected by disruptions in other businesses and services, including transportation networks. How well is your company prepared to face the human and economic consequences?

Stop the Virus's Spread
As a business leader, you can help slow the spread of a pandemic. Among the steps you should consider taking are:

• Establish a non-punitive, liberal sick leave policy to be implemented during a pandemic.
• Establish mandatory sick leave for employees who become ill or who have been exposed to the virus.
• Encourage telecommuting and other means of reducing the frequency of interpersonal contact both between employees and between employees and customers during a pandemic.
• Encourage all employees to receive an annual flu shot.
• Provide employees with accurate information about pandemic fundamentals, as well as your response plan.

Equip Your Workforce
One of the most important steps you can take right now is to cross-train your employees. Businesses should expect an absentee rate of up to 40 percent during a pandemic due to employee illness, the necessity of taking care of friends and family members, and fear of exposure to the virus, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The more your employees know about how to perform one another's jobs, the more likely your company will be able to operate smoothly even with only a fraction of its usual workforce.

Remember that your suppliers and your customers will be affected by a pandemic as well. Consider diversifying your supply chain so that an interruption in service from one supplier won't jeopardize your entire supply. Evaluate whether a pandemic will produce increased demand for the products you supply (from hospitals, for example) or whether you should expect a decrease in demand, and plan accordingly.

Resources Are Available
A number of agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization, offer Web sites with information about pandemic flu and how to plan for its effects (see table below). Federal, state and local government agencies are developing their own plans in the event of a pandemic. Be aware of the planning process in your area, and coordinate with other business owners to develop the best possible response plan for your business.

A Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist developed by the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is available here. Use this list to help create your pandemic response plan.

Remember—there is no way to predict if or when a pandemic could occur. But you can plan for how your company will weather the challenge.